Post-Copenhagen Part 1: The Bads

It's been some time since I've posted here, having spent most of January and February (a) recovering from a month away and (b) catching up on work.

Now that I've had a nice vacation, caught up on some work and had some time to reflect on the results of the Copenhagen Climate Summit, it's about time that I get back to writing, blogging and tweeting.

So I thought I'd start off by going over some of the take-home messages from the Copenhagen Conference, starting with the three key negative outcomes.

1.  The Death of Multinationalism

By far the worst outcome of the Copenhagen Conference was the failure of the member countries of the United Nations to collectively reach an agreement.

Now its no secret that the UN frequently has difficulties coming up with agreements. Every conversation I've had over the past 10 years with those involved with negotiating the Kyoto Protocol can attest to that.

However, the drafting of the key documents around the Copenhagen Accord consisted only of the world's major economies rather than a consensus agreement between all of the world's nations.

This means that concerns addressed by some of the poorer countries as well as small island nations that are at the greatest risk of the impacts of climate change were even more shut out from the decisions made at the big boy table.  The leadership of the G-20 group of nations, representing all of the world's largest economies, will be where this is won or lost.  The smaller countries will have to hope that their interests will be considered.

2.  Fingerpointing Between China and the West

With China rightfully wanting to continue developing its economy and the West rightfully concerned that China's rapid growth and reliance on coal for its power will negate any international action on reducing emissions, the conference resulted in a diplomatic war of words between the West and China.

This is not helpful. China and the US represent nearly half of current greenhouse gas emissions today.

Yes, the West must recognize China's right to develop. Yes, China needs to recognize that as it continues to grow as a world power, it has responsibilities on the world stage. These things are clear.

But the bickering between the two sides bodes very poorly for any kind of action on climate change.

3.  News Coverage on the Result

Characterizing the negotiations as a failure makes it much more difficult to have the climate change bill passed through the US Senate, a key stepping stone to global reaction to climate change.

You could read it from all the analysts: "The failure in Copenhagen means that Obama will have a difficult time getting legislation passed through Congress...", etc. etc.

Now why would I list news coverage of the result as a bad outcome all on its own? Why separate the spin from the facts when the facts seem to uphold all the pessimism we read in the news about the Copenhagen Accord?

I do so because the spin itself will be used by opponents of legislation as a reason not to act.

As a thought exercise, I'd ask you to imagine what would have happened if Copenhagen resulted in a fantastic accord where climate change is permanently resolved and millions of jobs and livelihoods are created and sustained.

Now how would the media report that? Would they report it as the monumental achievement of humankind that it was? Or would they report that, as an international agreement, it would make it difficult for Obama to pass climate change legislation through Congress?

Media matters. Of course there should be criticism. But political punditry can go overboard and skew the debate in a matter that isn't at all factual.  Consider the frequent claims that "there is no scientific consensus on climate change".  In fact, the success of programs such as The Daily Show and the Colbert Report regularly feed off of the media's misrepresentation of the issues.  That's perhaps why prominent US environmental organizations are attempting to spin the conference's results in a positive light.

Tomorrow: Three Good Things from Copenhagen